Two years of waiting has not moved the needle. The buyers who act now may be the ones who come out ahead.
There is a version of the interest rate story that a lot of buyers have been telling themselves for two years: rates will fall, the moment will come, and then they will move. That version is looking less likely by the month.
Jerry Larkowski, a dual-licensed attorney and Managing Broker at ESQ. Realty Group, LLC in Little Rock, Arkansas, has a direct read on where rates are headed, and what buyers in this market should be doing about it.
The sixes are not a temporary problem
As of late May 2026, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is sitting at roughly 6.5 to 6.7 percent depending on the lender and loan type. Freddie Mac’s most recent weekly average came in at 6.51 percent. Rates spiked after April’s inflation report and have not fully retreated.
Larkowski draws on a wide base of forecasting when he forms his outlook. “I’m talking about the chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors,” he says. “Their best money is we’re going to be in the sixes for a while. We may periodically dip into the fives. Let’s hope we don’t get up into the sevens.”
His own prediction, offered carefully: “If somebody held a gun to my head and said predict them, I would say we’re going to be floating around the sixes for the next couple of years.”
Why nobody should actually want a return to pandemic lows
It is easy to look back at 2020 and 2021 rates and wish they were back. Larkowski thinks that would be a mistake.
“There are a lot of people that are wise enough to say, please don’t let the rates go down where they were in the pandemic, because all that does is inflate property values,” he says. “There are a lot of areas around the country now where the prices are dropping, and they’re dropping significantly because those rates over-inflated them.”
The correction happening in overheated markets right now is a direct consequence of that era. Stability in the sixes, for all its friction, is a more sustainable place to build wealth than another speculative run-up.
Options that exist right now
Buyers who are ready to move are not without tools.
FHA loans can bring rates into the high fives for qualifying borrowers. Buying down the rate by paying points at closing is another lever, contributing cash upfront to reduce the interest rate over the life of the loan. For buyers with capital to apply at closing, that can meaningfully change the monthly math.
“You may be able to find an FHA rate that gets you into the fives,” Larkowski says. “There’s also the ability to buy down your rate by paying points.”
The market is shifting in buyers’ favor
The rate environment is not the only variable in play right now. Investors who financed properties during the low-rate years are facing balloon payments and increasingly moving to sell. That is adding inventory to the market in a way that benefits buyers who are ready to act.
Arkansas real estate has historically moved in a narrower range than coastal markets. Values do not spike the way they do in California or Florida, but they do not fall that way either. For a buyer who can get comfortable with a payment in the sixes, the market is offering more options, and more negotiating room, than the headlines suggest.
The buyers who keep waiting for a rate that may not arrive are the ones who will eventually buy at the same rate anyway, but with less inventory to choose from.
About ESQ. Realty Group, LLC: ESQ. Realty Group, LLC is a full-service real estate brokerage based in Central Arkansas, serving the Little Rock market. Led by Managing Broker Jerry Larkowski, a dual-licensed attorney with a background in trial law and litigation, the firm advises residential and commercial clients on buying, selling, and navigating the legal complexities of Arkansas real estate. Learn more at esqbrokers.com.
This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.
