RE/MAX Foxfire’s veteran broker outlines the data points he watches as national headlines create confusion on the ground
OCALA, FL – As mixed signals about the Florida real estate market continue to circulate in national media, veteran Central Florida broker Bobby Mathews is offering a more precise read, focused not on statewide trends, but on the specific conditions driving activity in the Ocala and greater Central Florida corridor.
Mathews is a Broker Associate at RE/MAX Foxfire, one of the region’s most established brokerages, now celebrating its 50th year in operation. With 25 years of experience across three full market cycles, he has developed a framework for reading local market direction that goes well beyond the headline data, and he shared the four indicators he relies on most heading into the spring 2026 season.
1. Inventory Levels
The ratio of available homes to the pace of active sales is Mathews’ primary gauge of market health. In Central Florida’s current environment, inventory has held at levels consistent with a balanced market, one that does not heavily favor either buyers or sellers, and that supports realistic pricing on both sides of a transaction. When inventory begins to shift meaningfully in either direction, Mathews adjusts his counsel to clients accordingly.
2. Days on Market
When days on market begin to expand, Mathews reads that as an early signal of a shift toward buyer advantage. It is also the trigger for more aggressive strategic marketing conversations with seller clients. “Pricing matters, positioning matters, how you market a property matters,” he says. In a market that is no longer moving at pandemic-era speed, sellers who treat those variables as secondary are the ones who sit on the market.
3. Buyer Confidence and the Mortgage Application Mix
Mathews tracks buyer confidence indexes alongside a more specific metric: the ratio of new purchase mortgage applications to refinance applications. When refinancing outpaces new purchase activity, he interprets it as a sign that existing homeowners are planning to improve rather than move, a leading indicator of tightening supply that can precede upward pressure on pricing. He is watching this metric closely alongside consumer sentiment data as interest rate expectations continue to evolve in 2026.
4. Migration Patterns
The longer-range indicator Mathews monitors is net population movement. Central Florida has recorded net population gains for 15 consecutive years, supported by both out-of-state arrivals and a growing secondary flow of in-state relocators, Floridians who have already moved to coastal markets and are now choosing inland Central Florida for its affordability, space, and lower risk profile.
“People who’ve already moved to Florida understand that there’s a big difference between the different regions,” Mathews says. “We’re attracting a lot from within the state, almost as much as from outside it.”
The Employment Factor Underpinning It All
Beyond the four core indicators, Mathews is tracking the structural demand created by major employer expansion in the region. Amazon, Chewy, Dollar General, and FedEx have all established large distribution operations locally, driving rental market growth that he expects to convert meaningfully into homeownership activity over the coming years.
Medical infrastructure expansion adds another layer. Tampa General’s planned northward expansion, combined with improved highway access via the Suncoast Parkway, is projected to accelerate population movement into Central Florida’s core markets through the remainder of the decade.
RE/MAX Foxfire serves buyers and sellers across Ocala, The Villages, Summerfield, and the broader Central Florida region, with a growing focus on the 55-plus, equestrian, farm, and luxury acreage segments.
For more information, visit foxfirerealty.com.
